Real-time macroeconomic forecasting

Compare forecasts.
Understand uncertainty.

Explore US macroeconomic predictions across structural, time-series, machine-learning, neural-network, and foundation models.

Explore forecasts About the project
GDP growthInflationFederal funds rate
Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability · Forecasting MMB

A broad model collection.
A shared view of forecast performance.

New · Interactive performance map

See model performance from every angle.

Compare accuracy across GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in one interactive 3D view. Rotate, zoom, inspect individual models and switch to 2D. Explore RMSE, MAE, CRPS and log scores using your chosen sample.

Open the 3D performance map ↗View exact score tables →
Explore the modelbase

From predictions to performance

Choose a view to start exploring.

01 / PREDICTIONS

Point forecasts

Compare forecast paths across models, vintages, and information sets.

 02 / UNCERTAINTY

Density forecasts

Inspect predictive distributions and the risks around each forecast.

 03 / PERFORMANCE

Evaluation

Compare exact score tables or explore model accuracy in interactive 3D.

 04 / INFORMATION

Data explorer

Explore the vintage data, predictors, and factors behind the forecasts.
Research at IMFS

Transparent forecasting.
Comparable evidence.

Developed by Luca Schmitz at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability and Goethe University Frankfurt.

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